Anything less will leave half of America questioning the legitimacy of the 2020 election. Democrats running for state legislature got more votes than Republicans (49.82% to Republicans’ 49.70%) but remain in the minority of seats (47.27%). Only the Arizona Senate and Texas House provide little to no evidence of gerrymandering as an explanation for the results we see at the state legislative level. Half of the seats of the Kentucky Senate and all of the seats of the Kentucky House of Representatives were up for election in 2020. All of the seats of the Idaho Senate and the Idaho House of Representatives were up for election in 2020. A portion of the seats of the Northern Mariana Islands Senate, and all of the seats of the Northern Mariana Islands House of Representatives, are up for election. A key factor at stake this year: The 2020 election cycle will be the last one before the state-by-state lineups are set in advance of post-2020 Census redistricting. The Alaska Senate is controlled by Republicans, while the Alaska House of Representatives is controlled by a coalition of Democrats, Republicans, and independents. As of 11/13/20 for GA, MI, TX, PA House. All of the seats of the Senate of Puerto Rico and the House of Representatives of Puerto Rico are up for election in 2020. Half of the seats of the Texas Senate and all of the seats of the Texas House of Representatives were up for election in 2020. Half of the seats of the Missouri Senate and all of the seats of the Missouri House of Representatives were up for election in 2020. Go! As of 11/13/20 for GA, MI, TX, PA House. ... October 2020 CREG Forecast October 2020 CREG Forecast. The result of reapportionment will likely be that Texas will gain two seats, and Arizona, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Oregon would each add one seat. But generally speaking, Democrats running for state legislative seats did not get enough votes to have flipped chambers even if the maps had been more fair. Redistricting will take place in 2021after the 2020 U.S. Census. Let’s take a look at three possible groups of explanations that may have contributed to state legislative outcomes: gerrymandering, roll-off/ticket-splitting, and enthusiasm/awareness gap. All of the seats of the Minnesota Senate and the Minnesota House of Representatives were up for election in 2020. [2][3][4][5] Following the election, Republicans have control of redistricting in 20 state governments, totalling 188 House districts, whereas Democrats have control in states with a total of 73 districts. Democrats’ state legislative committee broke fundraising records this year and hoped that 2020 would bring a political realignment back in their favor. It appears that there were a significant number of people who voted for Biden (regardless of the voter’s party registration), who either voted for Republican state legislators (split their ticket) or who did not vote for any state leg candidate (rolled off). Territorial and federal district summaries. Evidence of Ticket-Splitting and Roll-Off. 2020 Alaska House of Representatives election, 2020 Arizona House of Representatives election, 2020 Arkansas House of Representatives election, 2020 Colorado House of Representatives election, 2020 Florida House of Representatives election, 2020 Georgia House of Representatives election, 2020 Hawaii House of Representatives election, 2020 Idaho House of Representatives election, 2020 Illinois House of Representatives election, 2020 Iowa House of Representatives election, 2020 Kentucky House of Representatives election, 2020 Maine House of Representatives election, 2020 Massachusetts House of Representatives election, 2020 Michigan House of Representatives election, 2020 Minnesota House of Representatives election, 2020 Montana House of Representatives election, 2020 New Hampshire House of Representatives election, 2020 New Mexico House of Representatives election, 2020 North Carolina House of Representatives election, 2020 Ohio House of Representatives election, 2020 Oregon House of Representatives election, 2020 Pennsylvania House of Representatives election, 2020 Rhode Island House of Representatives election, 2020 South Carolina State Senate election, 2020 South Carolina House of Representatives election, 2020 Texas House of Representatives election, 2020 Utah House of Representatives election, 2020 Washington House of Representatives election, 2020 West Virginia House of Delegates election, 2020 Wyoming House of Representatives election, Elections in the Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands House of Representatives, Elections in the United States Virgin Islands, 2020 United States House of Representatives elections, 2020 United States gubernatorial elections, "The coronavirus crisis is drastically changing the battle for state legislatures and could completely reshape who controls Congress", "Democrats fail to make gains in state legislative races in advance of 2021 redistricting", "The Failure That Could Haunt Democrats for a Decade", "Democrats blame increased Trump turnout, uphill races for failure to win state legislative seats", "How Democrats Suffered Crushing Down-Ballot Losses Across America", "Democrats gear up to fight gerrymandering after state House losses", "2020 Legislative Races by State and Legislative Chamber", "July Update: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races", "The State of the States: The Legislatures", "Alaska House elects a Speaker after more than a month of gridlock", "Kentucky Legislature Returns Tuesday To Consider Overriding Beshear Vetoes", "Democrats are dominating state-level races", "Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2019 (NST-EST2019-alldata)", "2020 State & Legislative Partisan Composition", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2020_United_States_state_legislative_elections&oldid=994815327, 2020 state legislature elections in the United States, November 2020 events in the United States, Short description is different from Wikidata, Wikipedia articles in need of updating from November 2020, All Wikipedia articles in need of updating, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License, This page was last edited on 17 December 2020, at 18:01. ***Federal/gubernatorial numbers of 11/13/20; As of 11/12/20 for AZ, FL, MN, NC, PA Senate, WI. Republicans held a majority in 59 chambers, and Democrats held the majority in 39 chambers. Voting behavior and electoral outcomes are multivariate, and the results we see have numerous causes. Please update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. | Privacy Statement | Release of Liability Statement | Code of Conduct The legislature meets at the Wyoming State Capitol in Cheyenne. We also looked at the magnitude of roll-off in 2020 vs 2016. Nine legislative chambers in the five permanently-inhabited U.S. territories and the federal district of Washington, D.C. also held elections. Across the fifty states, approximately 65 percent of all upper house seats and 85 percent of all lower house seats were up for election. This may affect findings (i.e., the other 25 seats could lean more Democratic). If this is true, we would expect Democrats running for state legislative seats to have, at the chamber level, received more votes than Republicans, but won fewer seats. One chamber (Alaska House) was sharing power between two parties. 2020 Interim Committee Information. Republicans retained control of both chambers, maintaining a government trifecta. Republicans held control of both chambers, maintaining a government trifecta. Republicans retained control of both chambers. All of the seats of the American Samoa Senate and the American Samoa House of Representatives are up for election. Democrats held control of both chambers, maintaining a government trifecta. Republicans retained control of both chambers, maintaining a government trifecta. And this is crucially important this year, because 2020 is a census year. Due to the impact the redistricting cycle will have on partisan control of Congress and state legislatures, the Democrats, who had not been in control of a majority of state legislatures across the U.S. since 2010, had hoped to retake control of key chambers in advance. © Copyright 2020 Sister District Project. However, despite fundraising efforts and projections of several Republican-held chambers in competitive states flipping, the Democrats failed to flip any state chambers, which they attributed to gerrymandering in the wake of the 2010 elections, as well as state laws restricting voting, President Donald Trump being on the ballot, and the Democrats' campaigning methods. Prior to the elections, Democrats held 15 trifectas (control of the governor's office and both legislative chambers), Republicans held 21 trifectas, and 14 states have a divided government. In the case of this analysis, all non-presidential candidates are considered downballot candidates compared to presidential candidates. Without giving much consideration to the practical problems of implementing VBM on such a massive scale, the states saw it as a necessary step to take as a public health matter. Half of the seats of the Utah State Senate and all of the seats of the Utah House of Representatives were up for election in 2020. Because the Kentucky legislature can override gubernatorial vetoes with a simple majority vote, Republicans have a veto-proof majority in the state legislature.[12]. Author: sarah huber Democrats will be focused on keeping the GOP below 30 seats in the state Senate and 72 seats in the state House, to avoid a Republican supermajority that could thwart Democratic Gov. We have a chance this November to wrest control of several state legislatures back from the Republicans. When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, state legislatures took pending efforts by Democrat interest groups for expanded absentee voting and recast them as state-wide VBM authorizations. Democrats held control of both chambers, maintaining a government trifecta. In most chambers, we should have picked up more seats than we did, particularly in NC (both chambers), WI Assembly, GA House, and PA Senate. Half of the seats of the Iowa Senate and all of the seats of the Iowa House of Representatives were up for election in 2020. This gap can also be expressed as a lack of coattails for downballot candidates from upballot candidates with higher profile races. Republicans retained control of both chambers, maintaining a government trifecta. He predicted that Republicans could potentially gain control of the Maine Senate, the Minnesota House, and both chambers in New Hampshire, all of which were controlled by the Democratic Party. Washington, D.C., does not elect a governor or state legislature, but it does elect a, Although elections for governor of American Samoa are non-partisan, Governor. This means that some voters who voted for Republicans at another level of the ballot also voted for Cooper. In situations where one party controls the governor's office and both legislative chambers (known as a "government trifecta"),[13] that party is marked as having "overall" control of the state. (For an early analysis of some of the “why”s, check out our early analysis. However, there are also cases in which the aggregate total for state legislative candidates is larger than the vote total for Senate or gubernatorial candidates from the same party. Half of the seats of the Wyoming Senate and all of the seats of the Wyoming House of Representatives were up for election in 2020. In many states, this process is controlled by the state legislature, subject to gubernatorial veto.When one party controls the process, this can lead to gerrymandering, where district lines are set to maximize that party’s control in Congress. (If you are looking for current party composition, see here). Nebraska has a unicameral, officially non-partisan legislature. But Election Night 2020 was another disappointment: Democrats whiffed in their bid to flip a single state legislative chamber and lost the majorities they gained in 2018 in New Hampshire. Republicans held control of both chambers. Bottom line: results are mixed. We also should have at least tied the MI House and flipped the MN Senate. Republicans retained control of both chambers, maintaining a government trifecta. Democrats banked heavily on an effort to win seats in state legislative chambers in 2020, only to be thoroughly rebuked by the GOP. Republicans held control of both chambers, maintaining a government trifecta. Republicans held control of both chambers, maintaining a government trifecta. (Paul J. Weber/AP) By Republicans retained control of both chambers, maintaining a government trifecta. We also should have flipped the Minnesota Senate under a map that better reflected voters’ preferences. It goes like this: Democrats picked up the easiest seats in 2018 (minus MN and some PA Senate seats, which weren’t up in ‘18), so what was left in 2020 was harder and Democratic votes couldn’t crash over the “red wall.”. As of August 1, 2020, the following information is correct: Republicans held control of both chambers, maintaining a government trifecta. [1] Nationwide, approximately 40 percent of the population of the United States (including federal districts and territories) live in states with Republican control of the state government, 37 percent live in states with Democratic control, and 22 percent live in states with divided government.[c]. Democrats retained control of both chambers, maintaining a government trifecta. Half of the seats of the Tennessee Senate and all of the seats of the Tennessee House of Representatives were up for election in 2020. Louis Jacobson of The Cook Political Report predicted that Republican-held chambers that could potentially flip to Democratic control included both chambers in Arizona, the Florida Senate, both chambers in Georgia, the Iowa House, the Michigan House, the Minnesota Senate, both chambers in North Carolina, both chambers in Pennsylvania, and the Texas House. [1] These elections had a major impact on the 2020 redistricting cycle, as many states held their final legislative elections prior to the decennial drawing of new congressional and state legislative districts. Key: Green cells indicate candidates/chambers that outperformed their party’s Presidential candidate. Republicans retained control of both chambers, maintaining a government trifecta. Nebraska is the only U.S. state with a unicameral legislature; half of the seats of the Nebraska Legislature were up for election in 2020. Democrats held control of both chambers, maintaining a government trifecta. Republican state legislative candidates got a higher % of the vote than did Trump in all our chambers. This isn’t necessarily gerrymandering, as the seat share gap is small; however, this small gap prevented Democrats from taking the Senate majority. There was a bit more roll-off this year in the North Carolina Senate, almost identical roll-off in the Michigan House, but a bit less in the Minnesota Senate. Democrats retained control of both chambers, maintaining a government trifecta. The most important election of 2020 arguably isn’t for the White House — it’s the battle for control of America’s state legislatures. Cooper (D) received the most votes of any candidate on the NC ballot. If it’s not just gerrymandering, then what else could explain the results? Here are 23 former state legislative … Nebraska is also unique in that its legislature is officially non-partisan and holds non-partisan elections, although the Democratic and Republican parties each endorse legislative candidates. This is a list of United States state legislatures.Each state in the United States has a … Half of the seats of the Colorado Senate and all of the seats of the Colorado House of Representatives were up for election in 2020. The remaining portion of the U.S. population lives in Nebraska or. Many legislative chambers held elections for all seats, but some legislative chambers that use staggered elections held elections for only a portion of the total seats in the chamber. Regularly-scheduled elections were held in 86 of the 99 state legislative chambers in the United States. Presidential coattails is a phenomenon that. Not one state legislature flipped. Nationwide, regularly-scheduled elections were held for 5,876 of the 7,383 legislative seats. All of the seats of the Arizona Senate and the Arizona House of Representatives were up for election in 2020. All of the seats of the Maine Senate and the Maine House of Representatives were up for election in 2020. Republicans maintained control of the senate, while Democrats maintained control of the house of representatives. Democrats retained control of both chambers. Otherwise, overall control of the state is marked as being divided. Half of the seats of the Delaware Senate and all of the seats of the Delaware House of Representatives were up for election in 2020. Half of the seats of the Washington State Senate and all of the seats of the Washington House of Representatives were up for election in 2020. Nationwide, Republicans controlled approximately 60 percent of the legislative chambers and 52 percent of the legislative seats. All members of the legislature serve a two-year term. Half of the seats of the Pennsylvania State Senate and all of the seats of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives were up for election in 2020. Women currently hold 521, or 26.4%, of the 1,972 state senate seats and 1,641, or 30.3%, of the 5,411 state house or assembly seats. Republicans held control of both chambers, and also gained a government trifecta by winning the 2020 Montana gubernatorial election. That means that whoever is in charge of state legislatures following the November election will be drawing the district maps that will be in place… Another explanation for the results may be an enthusiasm or awareness gap between voters for the top and bottom of the ticket. The upper house tally includes the unicameral legislatures of Washington, D.C., Guam, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Republicans held control of both chambers, maintaining a government trifecta. Half of the seats of the Ohio Senate and all of the seats of the Ohio House of Representatives were up for election in 2020. After the 2020 Census, redistricting will occur, with congressional districts redrawn for the 2022 through 2030 elections. Roy Cooper. Republicans retained control of both chambers. None of the state chambers targeted by Democrats flipped in 2020. Republicans held control of both chambers, maintaining a government trifecta. Republicans held control of both chambers, maintaining a government trifecta. Republicans retained control of both chambers, maintaining a government trifecta. ***As of 11/12/20 for AZ, FL, MN, NC, PA Senate, WI. In 2020, 2,162, or 29.3% the 7,383 state legislators in the United States are women. Republicans retained control of both chambers, maintaining a government trifecta. Donald Trump escalated his efforts to undermine the 2020 election this week. For transparency, we are linking to our dataset, which we constructed based upon publicly-available voting information. That candidate’s vote total was deleted from that party’s presidential candidate total to simulate the removal of that district. In 2010, Democrats seemed to be asleep at the switch in legislative races, allowing Republicans to amass a wave that cemented GOP gains for the better part of a decade. Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia will each lose one seat. This means that many Biden voters chose not to vote downballot. ... Trump did not extend in 2020. The Council of the District of Columbia serves as the legislative branch of the federal district of Washington, D.C. Half of the council seats are up for election in 2020. Democrats retained control of both chambers, maintaining a government trifecta. The upper houses of Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Texas use a 2-4-4 term length system. Half of the seats of the Oregon State Senate and all of the seats of the Oregon House of Representatives were up for election in 2020. [8] The chambers not up for election either hold regularly-scheduled elections in odd-numbered years, or have four-year terms and hold all regularly-scheduled elections in presidential midterm election years. All members of the legislature serve a two-year term. Current and historic party control of state legislatures and government can be accessed below. Green boxes are where downballot candidates received a higher number of votes than their party’s presidential candidate. The GOP flipped both legislative chambers in New Hampshire and the state House in Alaska while Democrats failed to regain control of a single state legislative body anywhere in the country. The 2020 United States state legislative elections were held on November 3, 2020 for 86 state legislative chambers in 44 states. This analysis aims to describe what happened, but not why the outcomes occurred. Half of the seats of the Arkansas Senate and all of the seats of the Arkansas House of Representatives were up for election in 2020. For instance, Dems running for the Texas House received 733,000 less votes than Biden. We should have gotten really close to flipping the North Carolina Senate and House, the Wisconsin Assembly, the Georgia House, and the Pennsylvania Senate. The 29 state legislatures with Republican majorities could play a role in deciding the 2020 presidential election. Democrats’ failure to win more seats is clearly in large part because of gerrymandering. Note that this table only covers regularly-scheduled elections; additional special elections took place concurrently with these regularly-scheduled elections. Democrats held control of both chambers, maintaining a government trifecta. In each of these chambers, Democrats received far fewer seats than they had earned based on their vote share, which indicates an attempt to undermine Democratic voting power (i.e., Democratic voters are “packed” into the same districts or “cracked” to distribute them across several districts to limit Democratic voting power). The QAnon conspiracy theory is rooted in the chan message boards. [9], Writing for Sabato's Crystal Ball, Chaz Nuttycombe highlighted the Alaska House and the New Hampshire Senate as the top pick-up opportunities for Republicans, and lists the Arizona House, the Arizona Senate, the Iowa House, the Michigan House, the Minnesota Senate, the North Carolina House, the North Carolina Senate, the Pennsylvania House, and the Texas House as the top pick-up opportunities for Democrats.[10]. All of the seats of the Georgia State Senate and the Georgia House of Representatives were up for election in 2020. Republicans retained control of both chambers, maintaining a government trifecta. All of the seats of the Michigan House of Representatives were up for election in 2020. Republicans maintained control of the house of representatives. None of the state chambers targeted by Democrats flipped in 2020. All of the seats of the New York State Senate and the New York State Assembly were up for election in 2020. As of Monday, partisan control changed in two state legislative chambers as a result of the 2020 elections—Republicans gained majorities in the New Hampshire House of Representatives and the New Hampshire state Senate. An analysis of the “why” would need to address issues like the resonance of Democratic messaging, the impact of the pandemic on Democratic field programs, the impact of misinformation, voter suppression tactics, and other factors. Council members serve four-year terms. Democrats retained control of both chambers. All of the seats of the South Carolina Senate and the South Carolina House of Representatives were up for election in 2020. Democrats held control of both chambers, maintaining a government trifecta. Democrats held control of both chambers, maintaining a government trifecta. Members of the senate and the house both serve four-year terms. Given this year’s state legislative chamber performance: 2020 Election State Legislature Chamber Seat Share Gap. For instance, we often use Wisconsin in 2018 as an example of this “seat share gap:” Democrats running for state assembly received 54% of the votes, but only won 36% of the seats (18% seat share gap). *Only half of PA Senate seats were up for election but the whole state could vote for President. Republicans retained control of both chambers, maintaining a government trifecta. Gerrymandering can at least partly account for a failure to tie up the Michigan House. Across the fifty states, approximately 65 percent of all upper house seats and 85 percent of all lower house seats were up for election. Democrats spent big to take control of state legislatures but lost ... maps by ensuring Democrats remain the minority party in key state legislatures. ), One theory is that Democrats weren’t able to flip chambers because of gerrymandering. Partisan seat figures were compiled in August 2020. Republicans have a government trifecta with control of the governorship and both state legislative chambers. Seats could lean more Democratic ), TX, PA House partisan control of both chambers, maintaining a trifecta. Table above, green boxes provide evidence of ticket-splitting and red boxes are where downballot candidates received a number... Chambers of the seats of the Nevada Senate and the House of Representatives currently. 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